CO129-361 - Public Offices - 1909 — Page 367

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[This Document is the Property of His Britannic Majesty's Government.]

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AFFAIRS OF CHINA.

CONFIDENTIAL.

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No. 1.

REGP 21 MAY 09

355

[May 1.]

SECTION 2.

Sir J. Jordan to Sir Edward Grey. (Received May 1.)

(No. 119. Confidential.)

Sir,

Peking, March 16, 1909. WITHOUT being such as to give any immediate cause for anxiety, the political situation at Peking can scarcely be said to have improved during the short time that has elapsed since the establishment of the Regency.

It is not merely that Yuan Shih-kai's downfall has tended to weaken the stability of the Central Government, but there has been a marked revival of Manchu ascen dency in the councils of the Empire. No effect is being given to the repeated Decrees of recent years commanding the fusion of the Manchu and Chinese races and the abolition of the practice of reserving privileged positions for Manchus. The balance of power now rests with the Manchus, and Manchu predominance is making itself increasingly felt in all the great Departments of State.

In the Grand Council, which is the supreme governing body in the Empire, there are now three Manchus to two Chinese. Of the Manchus, Prince Ch'ing is 74 and in failing health, Shih-hsü is a courtier with no practical experience of public affairs, and Na T'ung had recently a stroke of paralysis. The two Chinese, Chang Chih-tung and Lu Ch'uan-lin, are both statesmen of the old school who are between 70 and 80

years of age.

But the Department which has suffered most by recent changes is the Board of Foreign Affairs. Yuan Shih-kai's place on the Board was filled up by the simple device of moving up all the other members a step, so that its composition has remained simply what it was before, minus the one strong man who directed its policy. A still further diminution of its efficiency has since followed in the serious illness of its Senior President, Na Tung, who, though an opportunist in politics, was an efficient man of business. His place has been taken temporarily by Shih-hst, the aged nonentity mentioned above. The result is that all the work of the Foreign Office falls upon Liang Tun-yen, an intelligent and agrecable Cantonese, whose health, however, is unequal to the strain of conducting six or seven interviews a day with the foreign Representatives.

The Regent is still largely an unknown quantity. He is popularly supposed to be a well-meaning impressionable young man, who is under the influence of a camarilla composed of his two younger brothers, aged 24 and 22 respectively; of his cousin, Duke Tsai Tsc, the Minister of Finance; and his kinsman, Tieh Liang, who is Minister of War. These four are known by the nickname of "the inner Grand Council."

Nothing has been done to improve the régime of the Palace, which is still under the control of the eunuchs, and the child Emperor is being brought up amid the influences which proved so fatal in the case of his two predecessors.

The state of the army is attracting some attention and there are whispers of discontent in its ranks. The equilibrium which has hitherto been maintained between the Manchu and Chinese troops in the vicinity of the capital has lately been converted into a decided preponderance of the Manchu element by the creation of a Guards Brigade of 3,000 men, which is to be recruited exclusively from Manchus and is eventually to be increased to a division.

There is some reason to suspect that the appreciation of the Prince Regent which appears in the native press and largely influences foreign opinion is inspired. How- ever that may be, his policy in reducing the Foreign Office to a state of inefficiency, and in accentuating the differences between Manchus and Chinese in the army and in all the Departments of State, is not one that can be viewed without misgiving.

I have, &c. (Signed) J. N. JORDAN.

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